The early results from Pokémon TCG’s 30th Celebration set suggest an unusually generous release. More than half of packs appear to contain an ex card or better, while Special Illustration Rare cards are turning up at rates far above recent sets.
That combination is already affecting the secondary market. With desirable cards entering circulation in much greater numbers, resale prices have fallen sharply instead of repeating the inflated pattern seen over the past two years.
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A compact set with an unusually large chase list
30th Celebration follows the five-year anniversary format, placing a Pikachu stamp on every card and combining new designs with reprints from Pokémon’s history. It is also the first time international players receive the anniversary cards simultaneously with Japan.
The global release adopts Japan’s five-card pack format, meaning collectors have fewer cards per pack than usual. Despite that, early openings indicate better than a 50 per cent chance of finding an ex card or something rarer.
Every card is at least a holo, each pack includes a holo Energy card, and every pack guarantees a holo Pikachu from a 30-card Pikachu subset. The set also contains ex cards, Illustration Rares, Special Illustration Rares and new Future Rare cards featuring Mew and Mewtwo.
Its Classic Collection adds 30 popular cards from across the franchise’s history. The selection includes the original Base Set holo Charizard, Gengar Prime and the highly sought-after Magikarp from Paldea Evolved.
There are also three RGB Mew cards. Their apparent rarity is so extreme that The Pokémon Company has not officially acknowledged them, and formal confirmation might not for months.
Why Crown Zenith is the comparison
Crown Zenith, released in January 2023 as the concluding special set of the Sword and Shield era, became known for its strong hit rate. Collectors had roughly a 50 per cent chance of pulling a V card or better, alongside the attractive and comparatively accessible Galarian Gallery.
Later Scarlet and Violet releases felt much less rewarding by comparison. Although a holo was guaranteed in every pack, the abundance of those cards reduced their value, while ex cards became more common and Illustration Rares and Special Illustration Rares became increasingly difficult to find.
Special Illustration Rares had settled at approximately one card in 80 packs in recent sets. That made completing a collection expensive and helped intensify the wider resale and scalping problem surrounding Pokémon cards.
Prices are responding to supply
Early listings are already seeing prices tumbling towards pre-bubble levels. The Mew and Mewtwo Future Rares were initially listed at about $1,000 on release day, but one Mew is now selling for around $150.
The apparent reason is straightforward: collectors can pull these cards rather than relying solely on the singles market. Greater supply gives children and established fans a better chance of obtaining the cards they want, while making it harder for resellers to sustain extreme prices.
These figures remain early. Pokémon card prices commonly take two or three weeks after release to settle, so some cards may fall further while others could recover as the market develops.
Early openings point to stronger odds
Several large openings are already providing a useful indication of the set’s performance. Leon Hart opened 151 packs and found both the Mew and Mewtwo Future Rares in fewer than 50 packs. Pull-rate specialist Danny Phantump has also started testing the set, with fuller figures expected later.
Early analysis from DigitalTQ has some early numbers too, based on 420 packs. Its results place the Mew and Mewtwo cards at close to a one per cent pull rate, substantially better than the Hyper Rare rates reported for previous releases.
The biggest change concerns Special Illustration Rares. The early estimate is 5.24 per cent, or better than one in 20 packs. That is roughly four to five times the rate reported across Scarlet and Violet and Mega Evolution sets during the past four years.
Illustration Rares are also appearing more often, at about one in five packs rather than one in ten. An Elite Trainer Box or collection box therefore has a strong chance of containing at least one full-art Illustration Rare, making sealed-product openings more rewarding.
The RGB Mew cards remain the ultimate chase cards for collectors who enjoy extreme rarity. There is not enough confirmed data for an official rate, but current rumours suggest a possible frequency of one card in every 20,000 packs.
A welcome pause for collectors
There is no guarantee that this generosity will become a long-term direction for Pokémon TCG. Crown Zenith’s strong reception was followed by less rewarding Scarlet and Violet releases, so 30th Celebration may be an isolated high point.
For now, however, the combination of accessible hits, plentiful Illustration Rares and falling resale prices gives collectors a healthier release to enjoy. Anyone planning a dedicated games room can also compare the wider hobby setup with RETROCADE’s Arcade Machine Buying Guide.
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