Affordable hardware helped expand the console audience during the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 era, with competition pushing prices lower. The next generation could face the opposite effect if Sony and Microsoft launch the PlayStation 6 and Project Helix at around US$1,000.
Ampere Analysis forecasts that the combined install base for the two consoles could be 38 per cent smaller at that price than it would be with hardware costing US$700. The warning is particularly relevant to Australian buyers, who may face an even higher local price after exchange rates, taxes and retailer costs are considered.
Senior research director Piers Harding-Rolls argues in the August 18 report that conventional consoles offering incremental improvements could make the next generation less accessible if their prices rise substantially.
A smaller audience and less spending
Under the report’s forecast, pricing the PS6 and Project Helix at US$1,000 rather than US$700 would result in approximately 39 million fewer consoles sold across their first five years.
The impact would extend beyond hardware sales. Player spending during the first three years of the generation is projected to fall by about 12 per cent, or roughly US$3.4 billion. Much of the additional hardware expense could be absorbed by higher component costs linked to artificial intelligence, rather than flowing to companies selling games through those platforms.
For context, the broader arcade and gaming news landscape shows why price and audience size remain closely connected: a platform needs a substantial installed base to support developers, multiplayer communities and ongoing software sales.
Three possible ways to avoid a costly generation
The analysis presents three broad strategies Sony and Microsoft could use to reduce the risk of a weaker console cycle:
- Delay the launch: Moving the PS6 and Project Helix beyond their rumoured 2028 window could give component prices more time to fall.
- Subsidise the hardware: The manufacturers could absorb more of the production cost, keeping the retail price lower while prioritising a larger install base.
- Deliver substantial innovation: New ways to play could make the systems feel worthwhile without relying mainly on extra processing power and improved graphics.
None of these options is straightforward. Waiting for costs to decline after 2028 would be a major gamble, while redesigning hardware that has already spent years in development could be difficult. A cheaper proposition built around new features would also require more than simply increasing performance.
Pressure from Nintendo’s next console
Sony and Microsoft may not have complete freedom to raise prices, particularly with the Switch 2 expected to sit at approximately US$500. That system gives consumers a less expensive alternative and could make premium pricing on competing consoles harder to justify.
Nintendo has long pursued distinctive hardware and software ideas instead of competing solely on power. That approach has helped it produce the most affordable console in the market while maintaining a strong reputation for game quality.
The same principle applies to dedicated gaming hardware beyond the living room. Buyers comparing a premium new console with an arcade machine, a space-saving bartop arcade or a virtual pinball machine will weigh price against the experience each format offers. For the next PlayStation and Xbox, the central question may be whether higher costs bring genuinely new experiences or simply more powerful versions of familiar hardware.
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